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Debt and bankruptcy risk · updated October 21, 2026

What is the Zmijewski score and how is it calculated

The Zmijewski score estimates the probability of financial distress from just three numbers: how much profit the company makes on its assets, how indebted it is and how liquid it is. It is simpler than Altman and Ohlson and works as a third opinion.

The Zmijewski score formula

X=−4.3 − 4.5·(Net profit ÷ Assets) + 5.7·(Liabilities ÷ Assets) − 0.004·(Current assets ÷ Current liabilities)
Net profit ÷ Assets
ROA, return on assets.
Liabilities ÷ Assets
The part of assets funded by debt.
Current assets ÷ Current liabilities
The current ratio.
Probability
Comes from X through a statistical function (probit): X = 0 means 50%.

How to read the Zmijewski score

Below 10%low risk
10% - 50%worth watching
Above 50%high risk

The model puts a lot of weight on debt, so heavily indebted but profitable companies can come out with a high probability.

When the Zmijewski score can fool you

Sensitive to debt: utilities and infrastructure companies, naturally funded with debt, often score high without being in danger.

Related terms

Questions about the Zmijewski score

Why does it differ so much from Ohlson?

Because the models were calibrated on different companies and periods. That is why we show them separately and do not add them up.

These explanations are for information only. They are not a recommendation to buy or sell.

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